In the acknowledgments of the Black Swan, author thanked a long list of people. There are many different ways to express gratitude to others. OK. Let's cut the crap and study the examples together.
1. I also built up a large debt toward PB.
2. It is thanks to no-nonsense people that I am grounding my Black Swan idea in academic libertarianism.
3. P is so valuable and thorough that he was even more...
4. I owe a big debt to DK who...
5. I thank MBH for doing...
##CONTINUE##
6. MM was the first to become...
7. I had long discussions with MS on...
8. DS kept e-mailing me papers...
9. JPB offered a great deal of help on the problems associated with ...
10. MB was always helpful as a sounding board, reader and adviser.
11. My friends, AM, AY, supplied me with ideas and questions.
12. I own the term Extremistan to CA.
13. NH guided me through the literature on forecasting.
14. LP was extremely generous with his comments about...
15. DW allowed me to ...
16. DC supplied me the graph...
17. I also benefit from JM's wonderful brief pieces on ...
18. BD, as always, provides the best walking conversations.
19. It does not pay to be the loyal friend. (I extract this one because I like it).
20. MCR was given the thankless task of...; I only ...
21. I received helpful comments from PS.
22. I owe a lot to PS, AM, PF...CB, plus so many anonymous persons I have forgotten about.
23. RC and JA offered their moral and financial help for the promotion of my ideas.
24. I also thank my business partners, coauthors, and intellectual associates: EH, MS.
25. I also thank JB, KK for making this book possible.
26. I thank CS, A for their tolerance.
27. A helped with ... and S worked on ...
28. WM is also the right kind of party animal. (This one is interesting.)
29. I was also flatted that DM took the time to ...
30. It is unfortunate that one learns most from people one disagrees with. (The same reason with the 19th.)
Black swan
Section II have just eaten a BLACK SWAN.In the acknowledgment of the book THE BLACK SWAN, it wrote
“I derived an unexpected amount of enjoyment in writing this book—in fact, it just wrote itself—and I want the reader to experience the same.”
I have to admit that NNT (the author of this book, Nassim Nicholas Tabel) succeeded. When I spent one and half hours each day with NNT and his prose (prose at first, but poem in the end), I enjoy the feeling of adventure. His brand-new idea of uncertainty is totally a magnet for me. It relieved me from daily pressure of what I should do, what I hadn’t done. I like his tone about what we ordinary people think and advocate about Platonic philosophy, Gaussian bell curve, etc. I like the way he use ironic language to comment on Nobel laureates, not to mention those scientists, philosophers and mathematicians (both alive and not). This really needs great guts, which I don’t have.##CONTINUE##I didn’t realize that he made huge success in stock-market in a long run until the end of the book. I used to judge him as an arrogant person who pleases the public with subversive ideas and want to become famous over night. As I read further, I guess such load of claptrap cannot be so long in a book with so much elaborate explanations even in technical way like part III. If I have time and opportunity, I will read it again with another respectful attitude. (I always have the dream to re-read a good book, especially after finishing the last words of that book. So far the only book I have read twice is FROM GOOD TO GREAT by Jim Collins.)
To be honest, I didn’t get and accept the complete thinking about author’s uncertainty theory, partly because I am not good at reading English, partly because I (alas) have brainwashed by schools and textbooks based on Gaussian bell curve. However, if there are still something sparkling in my head that would be the major idea about a black swan (or uncertainty),some interesting thought experiments, impressive illustration, such as turkey, some profound sentences, and some new words to my vocabulary (if necessary to mention). Now I will introduce the idea of the book and extract several sentences randomly (because they are everywhere in the book). You can skip next section since there are plenty of well written reviews on the web.
Section II
What remains in my stomach?A black swan is an unknown event with three principle characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we conduct an explanation that make it appears less random, and more predictable than it was. We are too much concentrating on what we know, and underestimated what we don’t know, as well as its power. We are vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize. Some big events, such as 9/11 or stock-market crash are unpredictable, thus trying to generalize patterns to explain them is practically useless, needless to say using these patterns to predict the future. Because we lived in extremistan where total is determined by a small number of extreme events, where the history jumps not crawls, we cannot predict from past information.
Well, actually, I find it is far more difficult to generate NNT’s thinking by myself. There should be much more than I wrote above. So have fun to dig it yourself.Several sentences I extract randomly from the book are as follows:
- History does not crawl, it jumps.- Notice the confusion of absence of evidence of Black Swans for evidence of absence of Black Swans. It is similar to no evidence of disease and evidence of no disease.
- The history of a process over a thousand days tells a turkey nothing about what is to happen next.- It has been more profitable for us to bind together in the wrong direction than to be alone in the right one.
- You do not make a cake for the sake of merely replicating a recipe--you try to make your own cake, using ideas from others to improve it.…
The list is long enough to use up all the hard disk in my computer, so I will just stop here.
Section III
It’s delicious!Almost within a month, I finished this 400 pages best-seller. Wow, what a great job I have done! Actually it’s easier than I imagined in the beginning. Although the unknown unknown idea is still very hard for me to absorb and put it into practice, I appreciate this enlightening book. Rather than preached an academic theory, author talks to us, alone with how he debate with his opponents. That’s why I call reading adventuring, like reading a novel.
I read it in English simply because someone in a forum said it is good to read the original version. Maybe reading this book is a little black swan to me, it is totally unpredictable, maybe have a big impact on me, and after reading it, I search causes to it.3.1415926
今夜星光璀璨
我们迎来了2009年的第一个春天
今日阳光灿烂
我们一起去梅花山玩
今年梅花不一般
如果非要用一个字形容她的好看
那只能是“艳”
“艳”的左半边
让我想起美食街上齐齐哈尔的羊肉串
“艳”的右半边
当然是形容各色梅花争奇斗妍
嘉年华里买了6个沙袋共话10元钱
结果扔中2个布娃娃稳赚
总的来说，花还是盛开的好看
今个儿真是超值的一天
我们迎来了2009年的第一个春天
今日阳光灿烂
我们一起去梅花山玩
今年梅花不一般
如果非要用一个字形容她的好看
那只能是“艳”
“艳”的左半边
让我想起美食街上齐齐哈尔的羊肉串
“艳”的右半边
当然是形容各色梅花争奇斗妍
嘉年华里买了6个沙袋共话10元钱
结果扔中2个布娃娃稳赚
总的来说，花还是盛开的好看
今个儿真是超值的一天
魔鬼经济学
现象：恐怖的三K党被一个叫肯尼迪的家伙给打垮。肯尼迪为了推翻三K党，潜入三K党，获得和内部的秘密（包括暗号，机构等），并将秘密公布给广播台。然后三K党觉得自己的秘密都被公开了，觉得很沮丧，很快就溃败了。
解释：三K党已经不是具有实际危害的组织，而是以那种神秘的信息的半宗教的组织，吸引人们（那些"游手好闲"的小青年）的是那种特有的信息优势，当这种信息优势连小孩都知道的时候，资质就没有价值了。信息的力量，信息的散步是信息持有这的权力消失.
现象：20世纪90年代后，定期人寿险价格急剧下降，而其他状况一切正常。互联网的一个价格对比网站使价格信息公开，各个保险公司纷纷降低价格。
解释：因为定期寿险基本无差别，所以用户唯一关注价格。因为用户因为不能支付咨询多家保险公的成本，无法横向对比，而那个网站让保险公司的这种信息优势开放给每个人，因此保险公司只能拼价格。
##CONTINUE##
现象：一辆新车一旦被开走，价格就下降25%。
解释：人们都认为只有车子有问题，才会刚买的车卖掉。
现象：房屋经纪人会把自己的房子多保留十天，并比委托人的房子高出1万美元。
解释：如果经纪人很努力的去多争取那1万元的价格，其实他得到的回报之中又150美元。房产经纪人拥有信息的优势，这种优势有时候甚至钜哟恐吓的作用。但它也在受到互联网的侵蚀。
现象a： 《最弱一环》这个美国电视游戏节目，规则是答题可以积累奖金，大家每次投票淘汰一名选手。根据规则，一般选手会在积累奖金的初级阶段淘汰那些能力弱的，而 在后面的阶段则淘汰那些强的来保证自己获得奖金。这里面还有没有歧视现象呢？答案是有。虽然黑人和妇女没有受到歧视，但是对老人和西班牙裔的却存在歧视。
现象b：网上约会的人在介绍自己的时候都夸大或隐瞒自己的某些信息，而且声称不会歧视黑人，但是在自己所发出的邮件中都却几乎都是白人，歧视依然存在。
现象c：美国选举的名义调查中黑人的支持率会比较高，但是在最后的选票中却没有那么高。
解释：歧视一直存在。
现象：美国一位为无家可归人奔走，他甚至在大学里演讲说每秒钟有45人死于无家可归，也就是说每年有15亿人死于无家可归，而当时美国才2.25亿人。
解释：但是这位专家为了自己的利益撒谎了。其实很多为了维护自己利益的团体都虚假的报告了自己的信息。
现象：毒贩子却和母亲住在贫民区，根本不富裕。解 释黑帮的也是有总部和分支机构组成，分支机构控制一块地方的毒品交易，手下有安全，财务，运营三方面的副手，副手下面是小兵，小兵的拿到的基本工资甚至低 于全国最低水平，根本难以养家糊口。组织最底层是普通成员，他们需要向上级交钱，并等待"升"为小兵的机会。他们的工作环境十分危险和艰苦，而且会经常发 生枪战。
解释：小兵拿到很低工资是因为他们所在的生活环境相当贫困，无法找到一份体面的工作。但他们梦想成为富裕的黑帮高层，所以努力工作。枪战是小兵们发起了，他们为了表现自己的英勇，获得关注而挑起事端。而管理者根本不希望发生枪战，那样会影响他们的生意。
现象：妓女的工资要比受过专业培训的建筑师高。
解释：虽然没有一个女孩子从小梦想当妓女，但是由于做妓女可能会受到暴力威胁和失去幸福家庭，因此市场对妓女的需求程度就会大于对建筑师的需求程度。当一个工作需求的人很多的时候，他们的议价能力下降，相对的工资就比较少了。
解释：三K党已经不是具有实际危害的组织，而是以那种神秘的信息的半宗教的组织，吸引人们（那些"游手好闲"的小青年）的是那种特有的信息优势，当这种信息优势连小孩都知道的时候，资质就没有价值了。信息的力量，信息的散步是信息持有这的权力消失.
现象：20世纪90年代后，定期人寿险价格急剧下降，而其他状况一切正常。互联网的一个价格对比网站使价格信息公开，各个保险公司纷纷降低价格。
解释：因为定期寿险基本无差别，所以用户唯一关注价格。因为用户因为不能支付咨询多家保险公的成本，无法横向对比，而那个网站让保险公司的这种信息优势开放给每个人，因此保险公司只能拼价格。
##CONTINUE##
现象：一辆新车一旦被开走，价格就下降25%。
解释：人们都认为只有车子有问题，才会刚买的车卖掉。
现象：房屋经纪人会把自己的房子多保留十天，并比委托人的房子高出1万美元。
解释：如果经纪人很努力的去多争取那1万元的价格，其实他得到的回报之中又150美元。房产经纪人拥有信息的优势，这种优势有时候甚至钜哟恐吓的作用。但它也在受到互联网的侵蚀。
现象a： 《最弱一环》这个美国电视游戏节目，规则是答题可以积累奖金，大家每次投票淘汰一名选手。根据规则，一般选手会在积累奖金的初级阶段淘汰那些能力弱的，而 在后面的阶段则淘汰那些强的来保证自己获得奖金。这里面还有没有歧视现象呢？答案是有。虽然黑人和妇女没有受到歧视，但是对老人和西班牙裔的却存在歧视。
现象b：网上约会的人在介绍自己的时候都夸大或隐瞒自己的某些信息，而且声称不会歧视黑人，但是在自己所发出的邮件中都却几乎都是白人，歧视依然存在。
现象c：美国选举的名义调查中黑人的支持率会比较高，但是在最后的选票中却没有那么高。
解释：歧视一直存在。
现象：美国一位为无家可归人奔走，他甚至在大学里演讲说每秒钟有45人死于无家可归，也就是说每年有15亿人死于无家可归，而当时美国才2.25亿人。
解释：但是这位专家为了自己的利益撒谎了。其实很多为了维护自己利益的团体都虚假的报告了自己的信息。
现象：毒贩子却和母亲住在贫民区，根本不富裕。解 释黑帮的也是有总部和分支机构组成，分支机构控制一块地方的毒品交易，手下有安全，财务，运营三方面的副手，副手下面是小兵，小兵的拿到的基本工资甚至低 于全国最低水平，根本难以养家糊口。组织最底层是普通成员，他们需要向上级交钱，并等待"升"为小兵的机会。他们的工作环境十分危险和艰苦，而且会经常发 生枪战。
解释：小兵拿到很低工资是因为他们所在的生活环境相当贫困，无法找到一份体面的工作。但他们梦想成为富裕的黑帮高层，所以努力工作。枪战是小兵们发起了，他们为了表现自己的英勇，获得关注而挑起事端。而管理者根本不希望发生枪战，那样会影响他们的生意。
现象：妓女的工资要比受过专业培训的建筑师高。
解释：虽然没有一个女孩子从小梦想当妓女，但是由于做妓女可能会受到暴力威胁和失去幸福家庭，因此市场对妓女的需求程度就会大于对建筑师的需求程度。当一个工作需求的人很多的时候，他们的议价能力下降，相对的工资就比较少了。
Born into Brothels
1、认识的一个外国朋友给我介绍了一部印度的纪录片，他借给了我DVD碟片，名字叫《Born into Brothels》，原来这部片子获得05年奥斯卡最佳纪录片奖的。想看的可以点击这里去看看。
2、片子讲的是在印度的红灯区的孩子们的悲惨命运，他们几乎都都逃脱不了当妓女或者苦工的命运，因为他们都是出生的红灯区的不幸儿。影片中导演给教他们拍照片，展示了他们的摄影才华。最后是几个孩子都获得了一定的资助，有的在美国念书。
3、还有一个网站专门是讲这几个孩子和电影的。可能是这个地址。
4、刚才看到网易的新闻说里面的女主角沦为了妓女，很是震惊。故事的大意就是通过那个纪录片将那些妓女生下的孩子拯救出来，摆脱再次成为妓女的苦命，这个纪录片还是一个公益基金项目。这真是一个巨大的讽刺。人的命运真的那么难以改变吗？是自己的劣根性、不争气？还是环境的严酷、无法逃避？
5、更让我心寒的是，也是我写这篇博客的原因是：无意中点到了网友的回复评论。让我少有的感受到网民的素质。心拔凉拔凉的。无知已经很可怕了，麻木不仁更是恶心，无知+麻木不仁简直就是让人窒息。
6、或许是因为我碰巧看过这部片子，太紧张，太严肃了吧。
2、片子讲的是在印度的红灯区的孩子们的悲惨命运，他们几乎都都逃脱不了当妓女或者苦工的命运，因为他们都是出生的红灯区的不幸儿。影片中导演给教他们拍照片，展示了他们的摄影才华。最后是几个孩子都获得了一定的资助，有的在美国念书。
3、还有一个网站专门是讲这几个孩子和电影的。可能是这个地址。
4、刚才看到网易的新闻说里面的女主角沦为了妓女，很是震惊。故事的大意就是通过那个纪录片将那些妓女生下的孩子拯救出来，摆脱再次成为妓女的苦命，这个纪录片还是一个公益基金项目。这真是一个巨大的讽刺。人的命运真的那么难以改变吗？是自己的劣根性、不争气？还是环境的严酷、无法逃避？
5、更让我心寒的是，也是我写这篇博客的原因是：无意中点到了网友的回复评论。让我少有的感受到网民的素质。心拔凉拔凉的。无知已经很可怕了，麻木不仁更是恶心，无知+麻木不仁简直就是让人窒息。
6、或许是因为我碰巧看过这部片子，太紧张，太严肃了吧。
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